It was the cook

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group and Putin's former caterer, should probably avoid open windows and rooftops.

Recently, in a completely stunning turn of events, an element of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, the Wagner Group, turned around their trucks and tanks and headed toward Moscow with the intent of sacking a few Kremlin leaders. They made it to within a couple of hundred kilometers of Moscow, shooting down Russian Army helicopters and planes in the process.

But what appeared to be a potential coup against Vladimir Putin’s two decades as a modern Russian Czar ground to a halt when, if the reporting is accurate, elements of the Russian Army unexpectedly failed to join forces with the Wagner Group.

It was all breathtaking to watch.

Despite his utility in exposing Putin and the Russian military for the dregs they are, Prigozhin is no hero. He’s an oligarch as brutal and immoral as Putin himself. The Wagner Group has its tentacles in war, murder, and violence around the world. Prigozhin, a former prisoner, rose to prominence as an influential aide to the Russian president. The Wagner Group’s raison d'être has been to extend Putin’s influence around the world without, ostensibly anyway, directly involving the Russian government.

A few months after the start of the 2022 Russian incursion into Ukraine, I wrote about the potential for a coup. The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed Russia’s military as not only not the second-best in the world but not even the second-best in Ukraine. The war exposed the Russian economy to ruinous sanctions. The war started a rush of countries applying for membership in NATO. In every way, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was an obvious blunder. I thought then (and still do now) that it was only a matter of time until oligarchs who were fat and happy before the invasion and it’s consequences for them would make Putin an offer he could not refuse.

It appears as if that is exactly what Yevgeny Prigozhin was doing. According to reports, Prigozhin, a longtime Putin ally, was furious with the way military officials in the Kremlin were treating his army of mercenaries. Prigozhin had had enough of the lack of supplies, the poor coordination, and the actual shelling by Russian troops. And thus, one of the most fascinating days of the 21st century ran it’s course.

Ukraine is far from a perfect country. It has been, in fact, one of the most politically corrupt countries in the world since gaining independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s current leader, was supposed to be part of the solution to this problem. But before he could meaningfully address domestic concerns, Putin sent Russian troops into Ukraine in an attempt to seemingly get the band back together.

There are a number of Americans who believe that we should stay out of the mess in Ukraine (a few of whom read this column). You’re not all wrong. I don’t think that we should always be the world’s police. But Ukraine is different for several reasons. First and foremost, we pledged our support to Ukraine after the fall of the Soviet Union if they turned over their nuclear weapons to us. This was to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons through the black market. If Ukraine still had its stockpile of nukes, Russia would almost certainly not have invaded in either 2014 or 2022. The Ukrainians kept their end of the bargain. We should keep ours as well.

Then there is the practical issue of having someone else do your dirty work for you on the cheap. Ukraine is humiliating the Russians at just about every turn in the war. And I don’t think that the 20th-century tactic of outsuffering the opposition is going to work for the Russians this time. They appear to be getting their clocks cleaned. And if you don’t think that China, Iran, and other bad actors are paying attention, I’ve got a great waterfront lot in the Everglades for you.

Finally, there’s the moral issue. I just think that the world should stand up to needless aggression. It’s outrageous that a single vicious demagogue like Vladimir Putin is able to wreak so much pain and suffering on another country, mostly out of spite. The more of that type of behavior that the world is willing to ignore, the more of it there’s going to be. I’m all for helping Ukraine make an example out of Russia.

Yo, China, are you watching this?

My guess is that Prigozhin’s days are probably numbered. Putin and the FSB (Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation) don’t seem to possess much in the way of an excess of humor when it comes to cracking down on political enemies. But I think that the same may well apply to Putin. You don’t, as a wartime leader, have forever when your incompetence and weakness have been fully exposed and the fishin’ pond is full of alligators.

At some point, I’m convinced that the gig will be up and that Putin will be getting the goodbye look. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy either.

Associated Press and Idaho Press Club-winning columnist Martin Hackworth of Pocatello is a physicist, writer, and retired Idaho State University faculty member who now spends his time with family, riding bicycles and motorcycles, and arranging and playing music. Follow him on Twitter @MartinHackworth