Post Mortem

How the Republicans managed to come up short while holding a straight flush.

Lotus Flower Tower - circa 1988

As of this morning, we're still not entirely sure which party is going to control Congress after the midterm elections. My guess is that the Republicans control the House by about 10 seats and perhaps the Senate by one. The outcome in the Senate will take some time to determine because it comes down to a runoff election in Georgia that won't happen for a few weeks.

But one thing is clear – there was no “red wave.” It was more of a red ripple. It's not what I thought would happen, but it's also not entirely surprising. The only group of politicians who can lose with a straight flush on par with the Democrats happen to be the Republicans. I'm starting to wonder if GOP stands for Gomer O. Pyle

That being said, it's a disappointment, not a disaster, for Republicans. Republicans are very likely to control the House of Representatives. Republicans also made impressive gains in some very blue districts. Mike Lawler (R-NY) managed to unseat Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), the powerful chair of the Democratic Campaign Committee – something that has not happened for decades. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Brian Kemp (R-GA) pulverized their Democrat rivals while simultaneously distancing themselves from Donald Trump. We may see more along these lines as votes are tabulated and contests wind down in the coming days.

But be that as it may, it was not the election that many on the right were expecting. When the narrative is almost all on your side, it's difficult to explain lackluster results with anything other than terrible candidates or bad messaging. I'd make the case for both.

I think that “the least awful choice” was in play in tight races across the country. So who were the least appalling candidates? Were they Democrats - who are likely to support continuing President Biden's economic and energy policies, who will continue to ignore the ongoing disaster at the southern border, who won't stand up to woke nonsense and who are soft on crime? Or are they Republican candidates who advocate for bans on all abortions, who deny the outcome of the last presidential election, who think that January 6th was no big deal and who seek to align themselves with Donald Trump?

Those are sorry choices. But that's what many Americans had. That being the case, I completely understand how reasonable people may disagree on the least awful choice. I also think that's why the elections were very tight in many places. “Least awful” is a soul-searching, gut-wrenching decision.

Despite a lackluster overall showing, there was a clear contrast between winners and losers in the GOP. The biggest winner was probably Ron DeSantis (with Mitch McConnell a close second). The biggest loser was undoubtedly Donald Trump. This may actually bode well for the Republicans down the road.

The sooner that the GOP divorces itself from Trump, the sooner it can reliably expand its appeal to swing voters. If DeSantis can continue to thread the needle in and still produce double-digit margins of victory in areas where Republicans have heretofore been unsuccessful, he'll look pretty good for running against Biden in 2024.

Contrast that with Trump, who though not on any ballot, got clocked. Trump may have gotten MAGA candidates over the top in their primaries, but most of those candidates didn't enjoy the success they anticipated in the election. Trump, IMO, was the principal reason that Republican candidates under-performed. Being aligned with Trump was a catastrophic failure in messaging to swing voters. Trump may be loved by his base, but by others, not so much.