The case for vaccines

Vaccines are generally safe and effective. Nothing is 100%, but vaccines are close enough. This, by the way, is not a case for government mandated vaccinations. That's something else entirely.

This column was first published in the Idaho State Journal in September 2021.

Right now we are conducting an important sociological experiment on a grand scale. It is not going well. I am referring to the number of people who, despite incentives and ample opportunity, have not, to date, chosen to receive any of the half dozen or so readily available COVID-19 vaccinations.

It’s an interesting experiment. The problem with it is that a lot of people in the control group are dropping like flies. I don’t like seeing that happen to people, especially those I know, no matter how stubborn and occasionally unaware of their size they happen to be. In America, you have the right to be wrong. And being wrong should generally involve having to ante up for the next round, not shedding your mortal coil.

I understand why some of you don’t trust the government or the media to deal straight. I don’t trust them either. Just last week, for instance, all we heard was how Afghanistan was not going to be another Vietnam. I suppose that you could make a technical case that Afghanistan was not, in fact, another Vietnam, but that would be only because it’s actually much worse.

Look — you don’t need to listen only to the government or the media about COVID-19 vaccinations. Virtually every corporate leader, public leader, religious leader and, of paramount importance, doctor is vaccinated. If you ask your doctor, someone you chose to look after your health, they are almost certainly going to tell you to get the vaccination.

Listen to them.

Medical science does not generally produce outcomes with complete certainty. There is no such thing as a vaccine, or any other treatment for that matter, that’s 100 percent effective. Those don’t exist. Nature operates on probabilities — right down to the quantum mechanical level. Once you wrap your mind around that — and you should — a lot of things make more sense.

The question that you need to ask yourself before deciding about a vaccine is not “Is this 100 percent safe and effective?” because it’s not. The question ought to be “How does it affect my odds of living for a few more years?” The answer to that is “pretty darned favorably.”

In the financial world, 85 percent is considered certainty. If the weather forecast is a 90 percent chance for rain tomorrow, I’m guessing that you go fetch your rain jacket. If you know that the odds are 95 percent for your team to win the Super Bowl next year, you are probably betting the ranch on it.