Tone deaf, or just plain deaf?

When you spike the ball on your own twenty - over questionable economic news - you may have a listening problem.

Last Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell an alarming 1276+ points. Other U.S. markets fell as well in what ended up being the worst sell-off on Wall Street since the dark days in the middle of the Covid pandemic.

Last Tuesday's free-fall coincided with the Labor Department's release of data showing that the consumer-price index rose 8.3% in August from a year ago. This was higher than expected - especially by the White House (more on that in just a bit). Not counting, mind you, food or energy, the “core” CPI increased 6.3% from a year earlier. That's not great.

Most economists view all of this as a definitive sign that the current round of inflation is buoyed on broad underlying economic factors and is about as far from “transitory,” or “Putin's fault” as it can get. Hence the selloff of stocks, bonds, metals, commodities, energy – just about anything that would sell. There was no joy in Mudvillle last Tuesday – and no joy any place else either where people pay attention to the markets.

But the White House apparently didn't get the memo, or at least the English language version of it, because they chose Tuesday, of all days, for a boastful, preening, partisan celebration to boast about the seraphic success of the “Inflation Reduction Act.” James Taylor, in fact, was playing “Fire and Rain” to the audience assembled at the White House just about the time that many retirees were discovering just how much money they'd lost in their 401k funds. There's not a better definition of “irony” anywhere.

I'm sure that the White House had anticipated that the August economic data would show a modest reduction in inflation – something that would have fit their narrative much better. Hence the giddy celebration. The problem with anticipating good news is that you really ought to wait for it to be official before you release the balloons, graffiti and '70's music – something the White House failed to do. Somewhere an event planner ought to be looking for a new job over this. On the slim chance that's true, the bad news is that they'll probably end up running an Ivy League school.

I don't know if the problem with events like this, which are distressingly common, is that politicians are tone deaf or just plain deaf. Though both Democrats and Republicans have demonstrated the ability, time and time again, to elevate BS to the level of political canon over the flimsiest of pretenses, this particular episode of our longstanding bipartisan melodrama belongs the the Dems – and taunting the opposition over their plan to ameliorate inflation on a day when the data clearly shows that what they are doing isn't working is simply a bad look.

This current round of inflation will eventually subside - but maybe not before the economy gets worse than it is now. As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to slow inflation, everyone is going to feel some pain. The worst outcome is that we enter a prolonged recession (the data already indicates that this could be very near). In that event, a lot of folks who are here now but were not around in the late 70's and 80's are about to discover hard times.

I am sure that both parties are equally capable of screwing up the economy. But right now the Democrats control everything, so the things that they've done to fuel inflation since they took power nearly two years ago are on them.

Neither you nor I should be surprised that Democratic Party leadership views what is objectively less than great economic news as an opportunity to boast and celebrate. We are, after all, talking about the same people who decry half of the voting public as MAGA deplorables while simultaneously spending millions of dollars to boost the chances of MAGA candidates in Republican primaries. This because they think that it will be easier to beat MAGA candidates in November than more moderate Republicans with more appeal to independent voters.

Therein lies the gist of our current political problem. Although independent voters determine the outcomes of national elections, partisan acolytes control the primaries. Not uncommonly this leads to mischief. But this time I think the Dems strategy may really come back to haunt them.

There's a pretty good antecedent for this that's a bit difficult to misinterpret.